Sarasota's 'undervotes' were examined in 5 state races.
The group of nearly 18,000 voters that registered no choice in
Sarasota's disputed congressional election solidly backed Democratic
candidates in all five of Florida's statewide races, an Orlando
Sentinel analysis of ballot data shows.
Among these voters, even the weakest Democrat --
agriculture-commissioner candidate Eric Copeland -- outpaced a
much-better-known Republican incumbent by 551 votes.
The trend, which continues up the ticket to the race for governor
and U.S. Senate, suggests that if votes were truly cast and lost -- as
Democrat Christine Jennings maintains -- they were votes that likely
cost her the congressional election.
Republican Vern Buchanan's 369-vote victory was certified by state
officials Monday. His camp says that, although people may have skipped
the race -- intentionally or not -- there is no evidence that votes
went missing.
But the results of the Sentinel analysis, two experts said, warrant additional investigation.
"Wow," University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato said.
"That's very suggestive -- I'd even say strongly suggestive -- that if
there had been votes recorded, she [Jennings] would have won that House
seat."
David Dill, an electronic-voting expert at Stanford University,
put it this way: "It seems to establish with certainty that more
Democrats are represented in those undervoted ballots."
The Sentinel reviewed records of 17,846 touch-screen ballots that
included no vote in the tightly contested 13th District congressional
race to determine whom voters selected in other major races.
The analysis of the so-called "undervotes" examined the races for
U.S. Senate, governor, attorney general, chief financial officer and
agriculture commissioner.
The results showed that the undervoted ballots skewed Democratic
in all of those races, even in the three races in which the county as a
whole went Republican.
In the governor's race, for example, Republican Charlie Crist won
handily in Sarasota, easily beating Democrat Jim Davis. But on the
undervoted ballots, Davis finished ahead by almost 7 percentage points.
In the agriculture commissioner's race, Republican Charles Bronson
beat Copeland by a double-digit margin among all voters. But on the
undervoted ballots, Copeland won by about 3 percentage points.
Some questions remain
The analysis does not -- and cannot -- reveal why no congressional
choice was recorded on the ballots. It also cannot determine which
candidate any single voter might have selected had he or she made a
choice.
But the strong performance of other Democrats indicates Jennings
would have found a sizable number of supporters within the group.
"If votes were actually lost," Dill said, "it appears those votes would have favored the Democrat."
About 15 percent of ballots cast on Sarasota's touch-screen
machines registered no choice in the bitterly fought congressional
race. That percentage was about six times greater than the undervote in
the rest of the House district, which spreads into four other counties.
Since Election Day, dozens -- if not hundreds -- of voters have
reported problems at the polls. Some say their vote for Jennings never
registered after they touched her name. Others say they never saw the
congressional race on the machine's screen.
The Jennings campaign argues that only a machine malfunction can
account for the high number of undervotes in the congressional race.
Her experts claim that because Jennings won in Sarasota by a 52
percent-to-47 percent margin -- the only county she carried -- she
would have picked up the bulk of any votes that were lost. Those votes,
they say, would have been enough to defeat Buchanan.
On Monday, Jennings filed a lawsuit in Tallahassee seeking to reverse the results or hold a new election.
Buchanan's camp says that undervotes may simply be voters exercising their choice not to make a selection in a race.
His supporters say two recounts have confirmed Buchanan's victory, and neither found a problem with the voting machines.
The Republican's experts acknowledge that some people may have
missed the race because of a poor ballot design, but that problem, they
say, would have affected all voters equally.
A representative from the Buchanan campaign was not available late
Tuesday to comment on the Sentinel analysis. But earlier this week,
Republicans said Jennings was attempting to accomplish in court what
she couldn't do at the polls.
"Christine Jennings is once again allowing her own personal
ambitions and the radical political agendas of liberal third-party
groups to hijack the democratic process," GOP state Chairwoman Carole
Jean Jordan said. "The votes have now been counted three times, once on
Election Day and twice since then in state-mandated recounts; yet
Christine Jennings will not step forward and do what is right for the
voters of the 13th Congressional District, which is to concede."
A Jennings spokesman said the results of the Sentinel analysis are
consistent with what the Democrats have been saying all along.
"That reflects what we've seen anecdotally," David Kochman said.
"The overwhelming majority of reports of voters having problems say
they were trying to vote for Christine Jennings. It's nearly unanimous."
A representative from the Buchanan campaign was not available Tuesday night.
'Potentially a test case'
A judge, meanwhile, refused to speed up testing set for next week
on Sarasota's touch-screen machines after a preliminary hearing Tuesday.
Circuit Judge William Gary rejected a motion to do the testing
today. He put Jennings' challenge on a fast track, but not as quick as
she wanted, by giving election officials 15 days to complete testing of
machines used in Sarasota County.
Jennings' attorney, Kendall Coffey, urged Gary to resolve the case
before the next session of Congress begins Jan. 3 and told him the case
had national implications.
"These questions about the reliability of these computerized
voting systems are asked not just here but throughout the country,"
Coffey said. "This is indeed potentially a test case for the nation."
Gary sided with lawyers for state and local election officials and
Buchanan, who asked for more time to make sure it is done right. The
testing is set for next Tuesday as part of a state audit.
The results of the election are also being challenged by four
advocacy groups: the American Civil Liberties Union, People for the
American Way, Voter Action and the Electronic Frontier Foundation.
Sean Holton and Katy Moore of the Sentinel staff contributed to
this report. Wire services also were used. Jim Stratton can be reached
at jstratton@orlandosentinel.com or 407-420-5379.
Copyright © 2006, Orlando Sentinel
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